“In the first 24 hours Model 3 received over 180,000 reservations, setting the record for the highest single-day sales of any product of any kind ever in world history.”
That is, of course, pure hyperbole, and there are two specific reasons why. The first is that the preorder process doesn’t represent sales at all. On Tesla’s own site, the process is referred to as reservations and not sales, and that’s all the $1,000 deposit represents – a place in a long line to have the right to buy a car 18 months or longer from now. Those who made a reservation in this way have no specific timeframe for delivery of their purchase, haven’t committed to any specific purchase, and have the right to a refund of their money at any time between now and whenever their car might finally be available. There is no sense in which this is a sale in any sort of traditional sense.
But even if you concede that the $1,000 represents a sale of some kind, the total revenue implied by that still falls far short of single-day sales for the most recent iPhone, for example, which likely does hold the record for largest single-day sales of any product. At just $180 million, Tesla’s Model 3 revenue is around 6% of single-day iPhone 6s sales. The only way the claim makes any sense at all is if you do what Elon Musk did in a tweet at the end of the first day of preorders, and apply some sort of anticipated average selling price to the 180,000 preorders. That’s even more disingenuous than the claim that these are sales at all, but it does lead to a far higher number. The comparison between these two different Tesla Model 3 numbers and assumed single-day sales for iPhone 6s is shown in the chart below:
Again,though, no-one has committed to actually buy a car from Tesla at this point, the process is entirely refundable, and Tesla won’t see even the majority of that revenue for a couple of years at least. This isn’t, in reality, any kind of sales record at all.
The stupid thing here is that the Model 3 preorder process is still a phenomenally impressive achievement. That so many of those placing reservations had never even seen the car is a testament to the power of Tesla’s brand and what it has achieved, and this likely is a record in the auto industry. But the hyperbole attached to the claim on Tesla’s site just detracts from all of that without having any real basis in fact. Tesla already has the world’s admiration and respect – engaging in this kind of behavior detracts from rather than adds to that mystique.
All the major publications which were given review units of the new iPhones ahead of the launch came out last week. I got my review unit last Friday (along with many Apple customers), but since I’ve now been able to spend a few days with it, I wanted to share a few thoughts. I’m going to try very hard not to rehash everything everyone else has said, and also to add a bit more insight in areas I haven’t seen others write about yet. I’m also going to spend a bit more time on the cameras than most of the other reviews – I’m not the world’s greatest photographer, but I do enjoy taking pictures and my phone is by far the camera I use the most to take pictures of my kids, so it has to be good. As such, I’ve spent a good chunk of time over the last few days taking pictures and videos of various things to test the camera specifically and I’ll share some examples below.
The Hardware
The new devices are nominally virtually unchanged on the outside from the previous versions, and that’s certainly the first impression they give too. They are a hair thicker and a tiny bit heavier than their predecessors, but if I hadn’t known that I might well not have noticed. Along with the iPhone 6 Plus I’m using, Apple also sent one of its new leather cases (I have the saddle brown one) and I’ve been using that for the last few days, which has made comparisons between this phone and the iPhone 6 Plus less relevant.
As with previous iPhones, the hardware feels very solid, well balanced, and high quality. Nothing’s changed there. The aluminum and glass are both supposed to be more durable than last year’s, but I can’t think of a way to test either of those that doesn’t involve trying to break the phone, so I haven’t tested either.
The new vibration engine (apparently now one and the same as the taptic engine) is very nice, too – I don’t use vibrating alerts much anymore since I started wearing the Apple Watch, but on the odd occasions when I still get them (mostly for phone calls), they’re more substantial than they used to be. It’s hard to know for sure, but I feel like the phone speaker has got better too – calls sound clearer and louder than before.
3D Touch
3D Touch is arguably the headline feature on the new iPhones, and from the moment I got to use it in person at Apple’s September event I’ve said I thought it was going to be important.
Just tried 3D Touch on the new iPhones. This is going to be huge. Both on home screen and in apps including third party apps
Having now used it for more than just a few minutes in a tightly-controlled demo environment, I have a few additional thoughts:
This is a big deal, but for now it’s mostly used by Apple’s own apps and just a handful of third-party apps. That has two implications. One, if you tend to use third-party replacements for key things like Mail, Calendar, and so on, you’ll find 3D Touch a lot less useful, at least for now. Two, that may mean you migrate back to Apple’s own apps in some cases, to make use of this feature. I’m curious to see how quickly most third-party app-makers add support – if I were them, I’d do it quickly, especially the Quick Actions functionality. I suspect this will be like the Apple Watch, in that apps that fail to support it will find users replacing them with ones that do.
Especially on the 6S Plus, which is the one I’m testing, 3D Touch makes apps on the top half of your home screen less useful than those on the bottom. Yes, you can use the Reachability feature to bring those higher-up apps within easier reach of your thumb, but that adds friction in the use of a feature that’s all about reducing friction. I haven’t done this yet, but I can see myself rearranging the icons on my main home screen based on which I’m likely to use Quick Actions with.
Speaking of which, I’ve always kept the Camera app in the top right of my first home screen, because I do want access to it when the phone is unlocked, but I most often trigger it when the phone is unlocked, and therefore use the camera button on the lower right of the lock screen. However, the introduction of 3D Touch and the much-faster Touch ID sensor (on which more below) means I rarely see the lock screen anymore, and even when I do using that lock-screen camera button is less flexible than the app icon for the camera on the home screen. I wish I could use 3D Touch in some way on the lock screen – that’s something Austin Mann predicted Apple would do, but it didn’t. I suspect that’s because the lock screen is becoming less relevant, but it also means I likely need to put my Camera app icon somewhere closer to the bottom of the screen, and maybe even on my home row.
For now, I’ve been using 3D Touch more in apps than on the home screen, and that’s partly because I tend to use third-party apps more than Apple’s own. I‘ve used it most in Instagram and the Photos app, where I’m using it both to view Live Photos and to quickly review recently-taken pictures when I’m still in camera mode. The latter is a really great addition, and I think third party developers will likely come up with lots of cool ideas for using this feature.
One thing I think developers should be thinking about is making Quick Actions user-customizable. Instagram, for example, chose to make access to the Direct inbox, Search, and View Activity the three additional Quick Actions beyond the obvious New Post option. If I had my way, I’d probably choose other aspects of the app to get quick access to, and I’m betting I’m not alone in that. Launch Center Pro does a great job of this as a key feature, and I think it’s brilliant (h/t @rjonesy).
Related to this, the order in which functions appear in Quick Actions is interesting too – I think we’re accustomed to reading menu-type lists (along with everything else we read) from top to bottom, but depending on where an app sits on your home screen, the menu items may appear in what seems to be reverse order (I think the rule of thumb is that the thing you’re most likely to want to use is closest to the app icon itself, for easy thumb access, but that may mean it’s at the bottom of the list). That means something of a learning curve for users, but is probably also something developers should think about in designing the order of items (and any icons they use alongside the labels).
Lastly, I’ve noticed some of the negative side effects of the introduction of 3D Touch. One of the things that’s happened to me several times is tapping on web links without any result. I think what’s happening is that I’m tapping just hard enough to trigger 3D Touch, but not holding it at all, which leaves me in a sort of limbo where I don’t get either the desired result or any visual signal that I’ve accidentally activated 3D Touch either. John Gruber has talked about the problem of trying to delete apps, a function I suspect we’ve all kind of activated by pressing down fairly hard on the screen to trigger the wobbling icons. I’ve had this problem too, and there are several other places where I’ve previously pressed fairly hard for the “long press” but now have to get used to pressing only gently. No doubt the mental and physical adjustments involved will come in time.
Touch ID
I won’t spend lots of time on this, as it’s been well-covered elsewhere, but the Touch ID sensor is dramatically faster now, and frequently completes authentication before the lock screen even pops up fully. That’s wonderful for quick access to functionality, but as others have pointed out (and as I alluded to in the context of the camera above) it does mean the lock screen becomes a lot less useful, unless you trigger the home button with a finger not registered for Touch ID, or use the side button to turn on the phone. Training the Touch ID sensor is also much quicker now – not something you have to do a lot, but I’ve added several fingers to the new phone more or less immediately, whereas it took me a long time to bother doing so on the iPhone 6 Plus because it took more time to do.
Live Photos
My initial reaction to the Live Photos demo was that this reminded me of something out of Harry Potter (it may have helped that my daughter has recently been reading the books and seeing the films for the first time).
Apple brings Harry Potter technology to the iPhone – Live Photos — Jan Dawson (@jandawson) September 9, 2015
Again, I got a brief demo of the feature at the September event, but it’s very different to be working with your own limited skills as a photographer rather than with carefully chosen images pre-installed on a demo phone. I’m glad I read some of the reviews last week ahead of trying to use it, because it meant I was immediately aware that I needed to change my past behavior slightly and hold the phone steady both before and after taking the still image (though the software on the phone now knows to cut off the video if the phone is lowered prematurely). That probably shortened the learning curve somewhat, but it’s still an interesting process to figure out how best to use Live Photos. Apple’s demo photos were an interesting mix of moving objects and people, and I’ve definitely had more luck with the latter than the former in terms of getting compelling Live Photos out of the process.
Below are some examples of Live Photos from the last few days – they’re a mix of objects and people/animals, and you’ll see how variable the results can be. For what it’s worth, sharing these anywhere other than in iOS is still difficult – I connected my phone to my Mac and used QuickTime to record the screen of my iPhone as I used 3D Touch to interact with them, which resulted in this series of 7-second videos you see below. In each case, the video starts with the still image, then shifts to the video, and returns to the still (you may hear background noise from my home office on the audio on some of them – no idea why QuickTime records microphone noise when capturing the iPhone screen).
Overall, I’m really enjoying Live Photos, and there are some interesting things to note:
Even when in Live Photo mode, you can capture multiple pictures in quick succession – at first, I was waiting for the yellow Live indicator to disappear before taking the next picture, but I found that it works just fine even when the pictures are taken close together. The video still attaches itself to each picture in the same way, which means you get an interesting effect when scrolling through pictures quickly and playing the Live Photo – you’ll hear almost the same background noise on each, with the beginning and end shifting a fraction of a second each time. This is very clever stuff on Apple’s part.
I kind of wish Apple had made these Live Photos auto-play as you scroll through your camera roll (or gave users the option of selecting this) – it would make your camera roll come alive in a completely different way, whereas for now your camera roll looks entirely static until you decide to engage with an individual picture. Maybe it’s the Harry Potter thing again, but I like the idea of these pictures looking alive from the get-go, rather than having to be prodded into action. I’m sure the team at Apple responsible for the feature spent at least some time discussing this decision, and ultimately came down on the side of having them be still by default – perhaps because scrolling through moving photos was too distracting visually, perhaps because of the impact on battery life, or for some other reason. Perhaps it’ll change in time or become a user option.
Related to this, the blurry transition between the still and the video isn’t my favorite element here. I can see why the engineers thought it needed a clear visual transition from one mode to the other, but when you’re reviewing a bunch of pictures it’s an unnecessary visual obstacle and delay that adds little once you’re used to how the feature works. At the very least, it feels like it should be quicker.
The Camera
The cameras have always been one of my favorite features of the iPhone, and I continue to find the cameras on the iPhone better than any other smartphone camera out there, at least for general use. The new cameras offer improvements over last year’s, which were already very good (see my review from last year here and this Flickr set for lots of pictures from last year’s phones).
My wife and I went to pick up my kids from her parents’ farm on Saturday, and I had a chance to take some pictures and video while we were there. We then went on a drive up the canyon near our home on Sunday afternoon, and I went on a brief hike with my son this morning too, so I’ve taken pictures and video in a few different settings over the last few days. Overall, I’ve been very impressed by the camera, both for photos and videos.
Below is a panorama I took this morning – it won’t look all that impressive below, because I’ve reduced it to fit here, but if you click on it, it’ll open the full-size image in a new tab or window.
The full image is over 13,000 by 3,600 pixels, and I think it looks fantastic (not my composition, but the various different levels of light and shade and how they’ve come out so well, while retaining a lot of detail). This is one of the huge strengths of the new cameras – the combination of high resolution and retention of detail, which will allow for much more usable cropping of pictures.
The two images below are a virtually complete crop and a partial crop of the same picture, both of which I’ve edited using Snapseed. I’m including them because of the detail that remains in the cropped version.
I’ve amped up the color in these pics a little, but I’ve included some other unedited shots below so you can get a sense of how these come out of the camera. In both cases, you can click on the picture and it’ll show full-size. For more photos, mostly unedited, see this Flickr set.
As for video, the iPhone continues to have a great slo-mo camera, but of course it now also has 4K video. I haven’t spent a ton of time using this, but one of the most striking things with video on the iPhone 6S Plus is how good the image stabilization is getting. I’m including below a few YouTube embeds which show off this capability – apologies for the slightly dizzying cinematography on some of the videos, but I was trying to test the camera’s ability to adjust to changes in lighting.
4K video – pan across mountain landscape:
This one was shot by one of my kids out the car window while driving on a bumpy, windy road through the canyon – it’s 1080p only:
This is another 1080 rather than 4K video, but it shows off the image stabilization quite well, as well as the quality of the video capture:
Speed
Other than the specific features I’ve reviewed, the one overarching theme with the new iPhone is speed. Touch ID is faster, as I’ve already mentioned, but everything else is noticeably faster too, as a result of the new chip, more RAM, and a variety of other improvements. There’s almost no lag now for a number of tasks which used to take time. And the overwhelming impression you’re left with is that you and your clumsy fingers are now the biggest source of latency for a lot of what you’re doing. I find myself more drawn to Siri and to voice dictation for text entry than before, simply because it now feels like I’m slowing everything down when I type things in.
All part of the pattern
In conclusion, the iPhone 6S range feels like a continuation of the pattern for Apple. In a piece I wrote on Techpinions a while back, I talked about the fact that Apple often builds new features and functionality incrementally over time, and it’s often not clear where a particular feature is heading until several years after its original launch. The iPhone 6Ss feature examples of both the outgrowth of earlier features (e.g. Force Touch on the Watch maturing into 3D Touch on the phone, the Touch ID sensor getting enormously faster), but also likely the beginning of new things that aren’t yet apparent. 3D Touch in particular feels like it’s just getting started, and could spread both to other parts of Apple’s product line and to other parts of iOS (count how many of Apple’s own apps don’t yet support it, for starters). But I’m sure there’s far more here, too, though it will probably only become clear as Apple launches future devices.
Note: I’m cross-posting this piece from the Jackdaw Research website, where it went out earlier today as a media comment on Apple’s event. I should have more in-depth analysis on the event here and on Techpinions in the next few days. My preview piece from Tuesday is here.
Apple’s September event always sets the tone for its entire year – new iPhones are announced, and the iPhone makes up the majority of Apple’s revenue and profits, and the performance of the iPhone business largely determines overall growth rates, at least for now. But today’s event, like last year’s, added another new product category that should drive significant new revenue for Apple and for developers, and arguably the new Apple TV was one of the biggest and most important things announced today.
iPhone
The new iPhones have enough new features to make them an interesting upgrade for those who always have to have the latest device from Apple, with 3D Touch the biggest new feature. The name of Force Touch badly needed to change, since it always sounded a little like a form of assault. I’m no convinced 3D Touch is the right name, but it conveys the concept reasonably well, in that the functionality is about a more layered interaction. 3D Touch itself should make navigation and interaction much quicker and easier, but it will mean something of a learning curve for users, because there won’t be any visual cues indicating what a 3D Touch might do, a problem the Apple Watch suffers from as well. For anyone with a two-year old iPhone, which includes the vast majority of iPhone users who will upgrade in the next year, this will be a significant upgrade. For all the concerns about a down year for iPhones, I believe Apple will have another year of year on year growth, though likely significantly slower year on year than in the iPhone 6 cycle.
I’ve been saying since early last year that Apple should launch its own device installment plan for iPhones, and now it’s launching one, with the iPhone Upgrade Program. This is a huge opportunity for Apple to take control of the customer relationship away from the carriers, and that in turn is a big risk factor for carriers, which will now cede some of that relationship to Apple. Arguably, only Apple has the infrastructure in place to offer this kind of plan to customers, so this will also be a further differentiator against competitors.
Apple TV
The Apple TV has been described as a hobby at Apple for too long, and today the transition to a product worthy to sit alongside Apple’s other products begins. The new SDK will create a huge new opportunity for both existing and new developers, both in gaming and content, and in the process it’ll make the device more compelling for end users too. But what will really change the Apple TV is the launch of the Apple TV service a few months from now, because only then will the Apple TV be capable of becoming the only device you need to plug into your TV. In the meantime, Apple is going to bring casual gaming and a much broader range of apps to the platform, and especially for cord cutters, the Apple TV might well become the only device they need.
One interesting wrinkle is that Apple is giving developers less than two months to create apps for the Apple TV, which is by far the shortest time it’s ever given developers for a completely new SDK. The iPad, which leveraged what had been known as iPhone OS, gave developers 66 days, while the original iPhone gave them 127 days and the Apple Watch debuted 157 days after the SDK was released. That doesn’t give developers a lot of time, but it likely reflects the shared elements in tvOS compared with iOS on iPhones and iPads.
Apple Watch
Though a minor announcement at the event this week, Apple Watch OS 2 is going to be enormously important for the Apple Watch and for Apple. An Apple Watch running OS 2 is best thought of as the version of the Watch Apple would have wanted to launch right off the bat, if it could have. The first version of the Watch software was good, but the reality is that the apps are sorely lacking, in large part because of the heavy dependence on the iPhone for functionality. With Watch OS 2, that all changes, and apps should be snappier, more functional, and far more varied in their capabilities. I believe this new phase of its history will change the Watch as much as iPhone OS 2 changed the iPhone, and make it a much more compelling device, while creating big new opportunities for developers. The new watch and band options should also help diversify the appeal of the Apple Watch in both the premium and low-end segments, with both the Hermes watches and the new colors for the Sport option. This, coupled with the holiday season, should make for a really big calendar Q4 for Watch sales.
iPad
The iPad Pro has obvious similarities to Microsoft’s Surface, with its detachable keyboard and stylus. But the big difference is that the iPad is designed first and foremost as a standalone tablet, and the keyboard and stylus are optional extras. The Surface has always felt compromised as a pure tablet, because everything is geared around the use as a quasi-laptop. The Smart Keyboard and Pencil will add a lot of value for certain kinds of users, but the iPad Pro could easily be a replacement for a family PC for gaming or TV viewing. But with the keyboard, multi-tasking, and new apps and functionality from Microsoft and Adobe among others, it could also become a fairly compelling option in the enterprise. At a minimum of $1000 including the Keyboard and Pencil, the iPad won’t be all that price competitive against a basic PC, but with the new internals, it’s actually quite a powerful computer in its own right.
The key for the iPad is that Apple is now engaged in what you might call salami tactics here; in other words, Apple is seeking to add to the iPad opportunity incrementally with a number of smaller moves, and I see the iPad Pro in this context, along with Apple’s partnerships with IBM and Cisco. The iPad Pro by itself won’t dramatically change iPad sales, but should provide a good boost for sales, especially in conjunction with the advancements in multitasking and split-screen functionality in iOS 9. I’m still skeptical that iPad sales will start growing again over the longer term, but I think they might stabilize, and that will happen in large part due to increasing education and enterprise sales rather than renewed growth in the consumer market.
Related topic pages: Apple, and more narrowly the Apple and TV topic page.
I’m writing up a short Apple event preview here. Please note that this isn’t a list of predictions – that’s always seemed foolish to me so close in to an event, since so much is known already, and any real out-on-a-limb projections are easily proven wrong the following day. Rather, this is an analysis of the importance and impact of the things that are likely to be announced. I’ll follow up with a comment for press in the hour or so after the event – if you’re not yet on my media distribution list but would like to be, you can sign up here.
One of the key mistakes a lot of people in the press and other commentators are making with regard to the new iPhones is having a single-year upgrade mentality. And because they make this mistake, many people are predicting a first down year for iPhone sales, but this view is misguided. As long as you look at each new iPhone in comparison solely to the iPhone that came the year before, you’re going to totally miss the point, which is that the vast majority of iPhone buyers are on a two-year upgrade cycle, and therefore the important comparison this year is to the 5S (and 5C) and not to the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus. I put together the table below a while back for a client, and I think it’s very relevant here – the key thing to look at is the final column, because this is the set of new features an owner of a two-year-old device will see when purchasing the new device. As you can see, even if you ignore Force Touch, which is highly likely but as yet unannounced, there’s plenty to recommend the new devices over the 5S, and if you bought a 5C two years ago, you need to add in several more features that weren’t in that device but were in the 5S, notably Touch ID.
Beyond the two-year upgrade cycle, everything else points to another big year for iPhone sales:
Switching from Android should continue at the same pace, especially since all the year’s major new Android devices are now out, so there’s no sense holding off on buying a new phone.
Upgrades from iPhones should be big again – the 5S cycle was bigger than the 5 cycle, which drove last year’s upgrades, so the starting point is much larger, and Tim Cook has made much on earnings calls of how little of Apple’s iPhone base has upgraded to the new phones yet.
The iPhone 6 Plus from last year will likely drop in price by $100, meaning that you can now get an extremely capable phablet for the same price as this year’s brand new phone (and the same price the Samsung Galaxy S6 and other leading Android devices launched at).
Installment plans and especially leasing options (many of which are iPhone-centric) from the US carriers are driving more frequent upgrades and purchases of higher-priced devices, which should further help iPhone sales. Sprint and T-Mobile in particular are driving iPhone sales hard at the moment, and I’d expect to see some bigger promotions from Verizon and AT&T around the new iPhone launch too.
Will the year-on-year growth rate be as high as this past year? No. But will it veer into negative territory? Absolutely not. Apple should sell more iPhones this year than they did last year, as they have every year in the past. Even those users that sometimes or always upgrade every year should see plenty to like in the new phones too, with Force Touch and other new features making the new phones a nice step up over last year’s ones.
Apple TV
I’ve written a lot about the Apple TV and Apple’s TV strategy in general over the past two years, so much so that last week I put together a new topic page on this site to summarize it all. That writing kicked off with a piece from January last year on how Apple could turn the Apple TV into more than a hobby, and I stand by what I said then, which is that the real transformation can’t happen until Apple launches a TV service (note that this was well before reports that Apple was working on such a thing surfaced). I still believe that’s the case, but I also believe that the announcements that will be made tomorrow will be extremely important for the Apple TV. Adding an open SDK and App Store will create significant new opportunities for third parties and for Apple around both gaming and content, something I wrote about on Techpinions last week. The potential for gaming in particular depends a great deal on the details of execution, most importantly the ease of porting apps from other flavors of iOS, and the controllers. But I think the new Apple TV will be huge. The biggest questions in my mind are how soon it will launch and therefore how much time developers will have to begin creating apps for it. Since it’s very likely to launch before Christmas (and probably in November), it’s likely to have the shortest announce-to-launch cycle of any entirely new Apple SDK, and that’s going to make this launch very interesting to watch.
Apple Watch
Though a minor announcement at the even this week, Apple Watch OS 2 is going to be enormously important for the Apple Watch and for Apple. I think an Apple Watch running OS 2 is best thought of as the version of the Watch Apple would have wanted to launch right off the bat, if it could have. The first version of the Watch software was good, but the reality is that the apps are sorely lacking, in large part because of the heavy dependence on the iPhone for functionality. With Watch OS 2, that all changes, and apps should be snappier, more functional, and far more varied in their capabilities. I believe this new phase of its history will change the Watch as much as iPhone OS 2 changed the iPhone, and make it a much more compelling device, while creating big new opportunities for developers. This, coupled with the holiday season, should make for a really big calendar Q4 for Watch sales. I’ve written about all this in more detail here.
iPad
It’s still unclear whether we’ll see new iPads at this September event, or whether they’ll be announced in October, but either way what I say here holds. The key for the iPad is that Apple is now engaged in what you might call salami tactics here (that’s a term that was coined back in the 1940s but which I first came across in this scene from the British comedy Yes, Prime Minister). That is, there are no huge boosts for iPad sales available to Apple, but rather a series of small steps it can take one by one, each of which will help iPad sales incrementally with the IBM and Cisco deals good additional examples. I first wrote about this idea here. I definitely see the iPad Pro (or whatever the larger iPad ends up being called) in this context – it won’t dramatically change iPad sales, but should add a little to the effort, especially in conjunction with the advancements in multitasking and split-screen functionality in iOS 9 (and potentially iOS 9.1), and the possibility of a stylus and Force Touch. I wrote a piece a while back about how iPad sales might eventually tick upwards due to upgrade cycles, but we’re coming to the end of the period when I thought that might happen, and I’m now skeptical that it will. Rather, I think they might stabilize, and that will happen in large part due to increasing education and enterprise sales rather than renewed growth in the consumer market.
Summary
Apple’s September event always sets the tone for its entire year – new iPhones are announced, and the iPhone makes up the majority of Apple’s revenue and profits, and the performance of the iPhone business largely determines overall growth rates, at least for now. So the new iPhones themselves are enormously important. But I’m actually far more interested in and excited by the Apple TV and Apple Watch OS 2, because they relate to unknowns in Apple’s business. iPhone upgrade and sales patterns are fairly predictable, but the Apple Watch is so early in its life, and the Apple TV is about to embark on such a significant transformation, that these moves are arguably more important in terms of their potential to move the needle on Apple’s future growth in unpredictable ways. On a personal level, too, I’m looking forward to a new iPhone, but I’m more excited by a new Apple TV, and by the new things my Apple Watch will do when running OS 2 and the new apps developers will create.
A blog about consumer technology from Jackdaw Research
