I try to use categories fairly extensively on this blog to allow readers to easily browse other blog posts on a particular topic. But because I write elsewhere too (notably at Techpinions) and because some topics transcend a single category, and also because a long linear list of posts isn’t always the easiest to navigate, I’ve decided to create some topic pages. These pages will bring together what I’ve written on certain topics across sites, and summarize my main views on the topic, with links to all the posts where the ideas are fleshed out in more details. This topic page deals with all the posts I’ve written that relate to Apple and the TV space, both Apple TV hardware and potential TV services.
Summary
My view on Apple TV is that an Apple TV service, offering something of a substitute for a traditional US pay TV service, is critical to the success of the Apple TV box. The Apple TV service must be comprehensive enough for the box to effectively become the only input the customer needs to plug into their television, which means it has to have very broad content rights including local and sports content. However, there are significant challenges to all this, not least securing those rights. In addition, the challenge of competing with the cable companies and telcos, who also control the broadband pipe and associated pricing, is significant. However, Apple does have some key advantages over existing players in terms of user interfaces, data capture and ad-based monetization, and attractiveness of its user base. I also believe that the new Apple TV box Apple is introducing in September 2015 will be successful on the basis of the App Store, gaming, and content opportunities it will create. But for Apple to truly take Apple TV beyond a hobby will take the Apple TV service, which I now expect to launch early next year.
Details and links
I have long believed that Apple has the greatest potential of perhaps any player to overcome what I see as the fragmentation of the television experience, something I first talked about in this piece on Techpinions in March 2014, in which I said:
Consumers want single-input, single-interface access to all their video content, and instead are presented with having to switch devices, inputs and apps to get from one show to the next… [W]hat has to be the end game for Apple in this space [is] offering a full-service TV subscription offering that would combine traditional live linear broadcasting with on-demand viewing of both recent and back-catalog TV shows and movies.
Launching such a service, I said at the time, was key to taking the Apple TV hardware from a hobby to something more – essentially, taking over the sole input on the TV. That continues to be my long-term thesis on Apple and TV – while the box is important, it’s the service that’s truly going to be critical to Apple’s success in this space, though the adding of an SDK and gaming with the new hardware announced in September 2015 will be important too (see the last piece linked below).
For the next year or so after I wrote this piece, there wasn’t much more to say. But then two things happened in quick succession: Apple’s deal with HBO around HBO Now, and the Wall Street Journal’s report that Apple was indeed working on something very like what I had described. I wrote a piece on Techpinions about the HBO Now deal and how it reinforced my perception that Apple could do something more, and as a response to the WSJ report, I wrote another piece on this site outlining the challenges Apple faced in getting this done. Not the least of these, I wrote, was the fact that anyone ending their television relationship with the cable company (or other pay TV provider) would still be stuck buying broadband from them, and likely at a higher price than before. To my mind, this is still one of the biggest bear arguments against a really mass-market Apple TV service:
The cable company will still play a role in many cases as the broadband provider, and with the loss of valuable TV revenue it’ll be tempted to compensate by raising broadband prices. If cable operators then also offer comparable over-the-top TV services as a retention strategy, the appeal and impact of Apple’s TV service may be further blunted. Apple’s differentiation will be greatest in the areas it specializes in – creating great user experiences across devices. Apple can apply some of what it’s acquired through Beats to develop recommendation features, and surely has plenty else up its sleeve. The effectiveness of this differentiation is ultimately what will drive Apple’s success or failure as a truly disruptive TV offering.
Over the next few months, I provided more detail about these challenges and others, as well as potential ways Apple might differentiate itself with a TV service, both here and on Techpinions:
- Apple, TV, Data and Ads (Techpinions) – this piece talked about the role Apple could play in helping content owners better monetize their content through advertising, especially on content watched other than live, without compromising user privacy.
- The Last Piece of Apple’s TV Puzzle: Local and Sports (also Techpinions) – this piece talked about the challenges associated with content rights, and especially the complexity of acquiring rights to local content across the US for a national launch, as well as the fragmented world of sports rights, which are spread over many different network and cable channels. I outlined several possible approaches Apple could take to all this.
- Along the way, I also wrote a piece on this site about why an actual television set really doesn’t make sense for Apple (and also covered some reasons why it might make sense.
- Following WWDC, I wrote a piece on Techpinions about Apple getting back into content with the announcements of Apple Music and the News app, and wondered what this might mean for the TV service.
Over the last few months, I’ve also shared quite a bit by way of context, with several pieces on the evolution of the TV industry in general (particularly in the US):
- TV’s Detour (Techpinions): an analysis of what I describe as TV’s detour away from the television set and onto other devices, only to come back to the TV again in recent years.
- Television’s Advertising Addiction (Techpinions): the other half of my analysis on trends in the TV market, focusing on the role of advertising and the damage it was doing to major players to rely so heavily on this revenue stream.
- A Primer on TV Economics (Techpinions Insiders): some basics on pay TV economics, including the true price of service, growing programming costs, and the importance of advertising revenue to pay TV providers.
- The Four Big Questions for the TV Industry (Techpinions): I outlined four important questions the TV industry would need to answer for itself in order to understand the disruption it faces and the best responses to it
- An Update on Cord-Cutting (Beyond Devices): an analysis of the numbers I regularly collect each quarter on the pay TV industry, and the increasingly obvious trend of cord cutting that’s emerging.
In August, the Beyond Devices Podcast covered the Apple TV in Episode 13, with my co-host Aaron Miller talking through the potential of the Apple TV as a gaming console, and on the same day I covered both the gaming and content opportunities associated with the new Apple TV in a post on Techpinions.
Listing of posts on this site in the “Apple TV” category:
- Apple’s Playbook
- Apple September 2015 event quick take
- Apple September 2015 event preview
- Why an Apple television doesn’t make sense (and does)
- The challenges ahead for Apple’s TV service
- Thoughts on Apple’s Spring Forward event
- Apple resurgent – thoughts on WWDC
Listing of posts on this site in the “Apple” category:
- MacBook Pro with Touch Bar Review
- Apple, Microsoft, and the Future of Touch
- Refocusing the Apple Watch
- Apple’s Headphone Transition Marries Pragmatism and Vision
- A Different Way to Think about iPhone Upgrade Cycles
- Apple and the EU
- Five Years of Tim Cook’s Apple in Charts
- Apple June 2016 Quarter Chart Review
- The State of Siri
- Apple Earnings: Bad News and Good News
- The iPhone 6 Blip
- Two Weeks with the iPad Pro
- Tesla’s Dodgy Claim
- The iPhone Paradox
- Digesting Apple’s new App Store numbers
- Apple Music survey results
- Operating system user bases
- How I’m using Apple Music
- iOS 9 adoption and Mixpanel
- Further thoughts on Apple’s iPhone Upgrade Program
- Apple’s Playbook
- Apple September 2015 event quick take
- Apple September 2015 event preview
- The future of Apple Watch will be more like the iPod’s than the iPhone’s
- Apple Watch sales
- Evaluating Apple Watch sales
- Friction is the Problem with Apple Music, not Complexity
- Apple’s evolving PR strategy
- Apple Music first day review
- Apple Music’s other financial advantage
- Some thoughts on Apple’s Beats 1 DJs
- Ten quick thoughts on WWDC
- Apple and Privacy
- Expanding Apple services on non-Apple devices
- Jony Ive’s promotion
- Why an Apple television doesn’t make sense (and does)
- A week with the Apple Watch
- Thoughts on Apple’s Q1 2015 earnings
- Contrasting iOS and Android adoption patterns
- What to look for in the Apple Watch reviews
- Apple Watch and the Platonic ideal
- The challenges ahead for Apple’s TV service
- Updated Android Auto and CarPlay support
- Thoughts on Apple’s Spring Forward event
- Quick Thoughts: Apple and advertising
- Quick Thoughts: Apple Watch and notifications
- Quick thoughts: Another way to think about Nest
- Thoughts on Apple’s Q4 2014 earnings
- Quick Thoughts: Apple’s GoPro
- Quick thoughts: on Apple’s subtle machine learning improvements
- Visualizing cross-platform development
- More quick thoughts on Twitter and Instagram (and Apple)
- Techpinions Insiders post on Mozilla, Google and Apple
- Thoughts on Apple Q3 2014 earnings
- Further thoughts on iPad sales
- iPhone 6 and 6 Plus thoughts
- Quick Thoughts: Apple and shutting down Beats
- Quick Thoughts – Apple’s different audiences
- What the Apple Watch is for
- Techpinions post: Apple Watch impact on smartwatch market
- Apple closes another window for competitors
- Techpinions post: Five thoughts on privacy and security
- Quick Thoughts: on iPhone sizes
- Techpinions post: potential acquisitions for Apple, Google and Microsoft
- This week’s Techpinions column – Apple and Mobile Payments
- New report and post on smartwatches
- Thoughts on Apple’s earnings for Q2 2014
- Why iPad shipments aren’t growing, but might start again soon
- Apple, IBM and the Pareto principle
- Apple will make several wearables, but not a watch
- Why Apple might break its launch pattern with wearables
- A review of early Android Auto and Apple CarPlay support
- On the replicability of the iPhone
- What we learned at I/O about Google’s app revenue
- Apple is doubling down on mature markets
- New podcasts
- What “winning” means for Apple
- Apple resurgent – thoughts on WWDC
- Apple and the smart home
- Apple & Beats
- Beehive Startups podcast
- Thoughts on Apple’s Q2 FY 2014 earnings
- Why Apple may not launch an iWatch anytime soon