Category Archives: Google I/O

Android, Developer events, Google, Google I/O

Evaluating Google’s I/O 2015 announcements

I wrote a piece a few days back for Techpinions about the challenges Google needed to address at I/O this year. Now that the I/O keynote is over (which I was fortunate enough to attend in person), I thought I’d revisit that list of challenges to see how Google did.

Retaking control of Android

There were a couple of things that Google did related to retaking control of Android at I/O: reinforcing the value proposition of its Android One initiative, and announcing Android Pay. The former is obvious: it’s Google’s attempt to get a close-to-stock version of Android as the default version in emerging markets. But the latter may be less obvious. However, by launching Android Pay, Google nixes its OEMs’ efforts to introduce their own payment systems, as this post outlines. Samsung is likely to be the hardest hit by this, since it’s the only Android OEM that had launched a payment service. But I wonder how much Google will spread this model of Google Services Mandatory classification for key Android features to other areas, squeezing out OEMs from offering competing services.

Defending the web against apps

This year’s I/O was a mixed bag in this respect, with a couple of initiatives clearly aimed at just this, but some others moving things in the opposite direction. On the one hand, Google announced Chrome Custom Tabs, an alternative to in-app browsers for displaying web content, which brings users back into the web, where Google can better track their activity and otherwise capture data. It also reiterated its app indexing and deep linking projects, which recently began to roll out on iOS too. These efforts are both aimed at making the web more relevant in a world where apps are becoming dominant. Google Now on Tap is an interesting mix in this respect – on the one hand, it allows users to stay in apps when they have Google Now queries, rather than having to exit out of them, which could be seen as favoring apps rather than the web. But on the other hand, this inserts a Google layer between users and apps, in some cases recommending other apps for users to open, but in others using the Google Knowledge Graph to disintermediate those apps.  On balance, Google seems to be serving its own needs pretty well with these new announcements.

Convince developers Android users are worth targeting

There was remarkably little at I/O about why developers should target Android users exclusively or in addition to iOS users. There was no update on the total number of Android users, which remains at “over one billion”. And Google did very little to argue why these users might be attractive, rather emphasizing the fact that many of the new users on Android will come from emerging markets, where there are lower incomes and less propensity to spend. There was no mention of carrier billing at all, and the only mention of monetization was in relation to better ad products within apps rather than paid apps or in-app purchases. I don’t think Google has given up on the paid apps route, but it was hard to escape that impression from the keynote, which I find baffling. To be sure, Android will never have the same attractive demographics as iOS, but it can still do much better than it has in the past, especially in mature markets.

Take Android beyond personal computing devices

The big announcement here was the Brillo project, which takes Android and strips it down to a barebones version for use in Internet of Things devices (and for today at least home devices specifically), together with the Weave communication protocol, which will be baked into Android at the Google Play Services layer and therefore make compatible devices instantly discoverable from Android devices. This is exactly what I was getting at in my preview piece on this topic – a version of Android that’s optimized for these devices, which have no need for the full version of Android but have other specific needs Android in its current form doesn’t meet well. There’s a lot of work still to be done here – though Brillo will launch in Q3 (and Weave in Q4) I sensed many decisions about Brillo still haven’t been made (not least the final name for the OS itself). More broadly, I was disappointed that we didn’t hear more about operating systems for the car, another area I highlighted in my preview piece, and one in which Google has been reported to be making some interesting progress. I wonder if we’ll see more on this in the months building up to the Android M public release.

Demonstrate a clear value proposition in TV

This was the other big area where I was expecting much more from Google’s keynote at I/O than we got – it got barely a mention in the keynote, and the expected announcements were made either not at all or in press releases. Nvidia announced its Shield device built on Android TV, and bought up almost every outdoor advertising spot within a few blocks of the Moscone Center to advertise it, but there was nothing in the keynote to demonstrate meaningful progress in this area. The only other concession to this challenge was the announcement that HBO Now would be coming to Android and Chromecast shortly. Speaking of which, Chromecast has now sold 17 million units, putting it in the same ballpark with Apple TV and Roku. There continues to be an odd disconnect between Chromecast and Android TV in Google’s TV strategy which I hope it can resolve in time. Chromecast certainly seems to be the more successful model so far, though the total number of casts (1.5 billion) relative to the number of Chromecasts sold (17 million) implies relatively low usage of those devices.

Continue to unify Android and Chrome OS

There was even less on this theme at I/O 2015 than there was last year, where Google at least talked about Android apps running on Chrome OS. Chrome OS was barely mentioned at all in the keynote, and there was no news about it at all. This continues to be an area where Google has to do a much better job telling its story and bringing the disparate threads together.

Differentiate against Amazon and Microsoft in the cloud

The whole enterprise space, and cloud in particular, got incredibly short shrift in the keynote too, after a lengthy session in last year’s keynote. There was nothing here to indicate that Google was going to make meaningful progress in this department in the coming year beyond its existing strategies.

Beyond the keynote, and beyond Android

Even though the pace of the keynote and the volume of individual announcements was somewhat overwhelming, as always, the substance of what was announced really wasn’t. The Android M release looks like a very modest, incremental, improvement on Lollipop. This was a little disappointing, but partly reflects the fact that Google is slowly extracting functionality from the operating system and putting it in more easily upgradable layers like Google Play Services instead. The new Photos app is a great example of this. This does mean, however, that the news around new Android version releases is going to become less interesting over time, while the announcements separate from Android will become more interesting in many ways. But this year’s I/O also looks like introducing much more news outside the keynote – I’m writing this on day two of the event, and several announcements around wearables, Google Loon, and other projects have been made separately. As an attendee, I’m grateful that the keynote was trimmed down to just two hours, but it does make it harder to follow all the news that’s coming out of I/O as Google starts to fragment the more notable announcements across sessions.

Android, Android Wear, Google, Google I/O, Samsung, Smartwatches

The three problems with Android Wear

I’ve been using an Android Wear device – the Samsung Galaxy Live – since I picked it up at I/O last week. I’ve tried a number of other smartwatches before now, and it’s interesting to see the differences. As it’s currently constituted, I see three flaws with Google Wear, two of which seem to be pretty fundamental, and one of which should be fixed soon:

Cards are a bad UI for small screens

Cards make a ton of sense on smartphones and tablets and on the web, where they provide useful visual separation between discrete chunks of information, and they work well on Twitter.com, in Google Now on smartphones, and elsewhere. But on a space-constrained screen they really don’t work because they’re a terribly inefficient use of screen real estate. There are several different layers of information in Android Wear, as shown in this triptych:Android Wear triptych 560px

The first screen is what you see before you interact with a card – the card stays in the bottom half, and takes up just a third of the screen. The amount of information presented is extremely limited. If I then interact with the card, I get the middle screen, which is slightly richer but still takes up only half the pixels on the display. If I then swipe, I get even more information as shown on the right. But the card still only takes up half the screen. Compare this with the Galaxy Gear 2, which (though not a paragon of great UI) uses the whole screen to display notifications. This is a minor annoyance with the weather card from Google Now, but it’s really annoying when a notification comes in about a new email, and just a tiny amount of the email shows by default – I almost always have to tap on the small card to make it big enough to have a real sense of what it’s about. The “glanceability” factor just isn’t there.

The cards UI, with its limited use of the screen space, and the rest given over to a background that really adds nothing, is just not a good fit for such a small screen. It’s a great example of the problem with applying a single design language, essentially without modifications, to multiple form factors. It’s a problem that Microsoft has struggled with too in the form of Windows 8, and one that Apple so far seems to have managed to avoid in providing useful integration between iOS and OS X without taking things too far.

Google Now is still too much just in case and not enough just in time

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Android, App stores, Apple, Developer events, Developers, Google, Google I/O

What we learned at I/O about Google’s app revenue

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With both Apple and Google’s developer events behind us now, we have some useful new numbers to play with, specifically on the amount both companies have disbursed to developers. In today’s Google I/O keynote, Google announced that it had paid developers $5 billion over the past year, and that this was 2.5 times what it had paid developers in the previous twelve-month period. This gives us some really good numbers to start plotting overall Google Play developer payments for the first time. The Wall Street Journal also reported today that Google is now retaining almost all of its 30% cut, as does Apple, rather than giving the majority to carriers as it once did. This, in turn, allows us to calculate Google’s revenues from Google Play as well.

Google is catching up quickly in payments to developers

First, a comparison of quarterly developer payments on both platforms. I’ve filled in the blanks with a nice smooth curve on the Google Play numbers, and although my fairly accurate estimates on the iOS side are pretty lumpy too I’ve smoothed that curve as well to make them easier to compare. (The reality is developer payments go up and down because app spending goes up and down as new devices ship and are sold in large numbers around major launches and the holiday period, for example.)

So here’s a chart comparing developer payments from the two companies since the inception of their respective paid app stores:

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Developer events, Developers, Google, Google I/O

Three questions for Google at I/O

On Wednesday this week, Google kicks of its developer event, Google I/O, completing the trifecta of major developer events with Microsoft’s Build and Apple’s WWDC. These events set the stage for at least the next year for these companies, and in some cases far more. And though they’re targeted at developers, they often tell us a great deal about the companies’ outlook and strategy beyond just those who write for their various platforms. As such, I thought it would be useful to outline three big questions for Google to answer at I/O later this week, and what the answers might mean. I’ll be at I/O for the keynote Wednesday morning at least, and I’ll be sharing my thoughts during the event on Twitter, and afterwards here and at Techpinions.

Which way will the pendulum swing between open and controlled?

Android has famously been described since its release at Google as an open operating system, and is literally an open source operating system at least as far as the AOSP version is concerned. But Google has been steadily chipping away at this openness, by preventing licensees of the Google Mobile Services package from also selling forked versions of Android, by allegedly putting pressure on Samsung to tone down its UI customizations, and by abstracting more of the core features of Android into standalone apps. At the same time, it’s acquired Nest (which is itself now acquiring Dropcam), has developed Google Glass and self-driving cars and released the Chromecast dongle for TVs. All of these products combined Google-owned hardware with Google-owned software, a departure from the platform approach it has taken with Android. Is this new, more controlled approach the shape of things to come, and the way we should think about Google’s approach to the markets it will enter in the coming years, or are they anomalous? Will Google the platform and software company become Google the hardware company, even as it rids itself of by far its biggest hardware unit in the form of Motorola?

How does Google think about integration between its platforms?

Both Microsoft and Apple showcased their approaches to cross-device and cross-platform integration at their respective developer events, and they’re quite different, as I’ve talked about here previously. Both of those companies have two separate operating systems, and they’ve talked about how they bring those together for end users. Microsoft has focused more on a common user interface at the end user layer, and a common kernel and tools at the developer layer, while Apple has focused on a common and integrated user experience and now a common language. With two operating systems of its own in the form of Chrome OS and Android, Google needs to tell the story of how these come together for both users and developers. So far, Google’s integration has been largely focused on its services, which operate not just on any of Google’s platforms but on third-party platforms such as iOS and Windows as well. But as its two major competitors focus on deeper integration between their platforms, Google’s two platforms feel as far apart as they ever have. Will putting them both under one leader in the form of Sundar Pichai change things? What will we see at I/O that demonstrates that Google understands the need to rationalize these two operating systems in some form?

How will Google respond to the privacy gauntlet thrown down by Apple?

At WWDC, Apple focused more than it ever has on its approach to security and privacy, with several explicit digs at Google in the process. HealthKit, HomeKit, iOS and its sandboxing approach, preserved even as Apple adds Extensibility – in all these announcements, Apple reiterated its commitment to securing its users’ data and protecting them from intrusions from both malicious actors and over-zealous marketers. Google has always pushed the boundaries in terms of privacy and security, both policing Android less than Apple polices iOS from an apps perspective and itself intruding ever more on users’ privacy. With the Nest acquisition (and now the Dropcam acquisition) Google has been forced to make clear statements about the separation between these units and Google itself from a data perspective. DuckDuckGo continues to grow rapidly if at a very small scale as an alternative to Google in the search engine world. Reverberations from the Snowden revelations continue to be felt. Samsung continues to build its own enterprise security and device management capabilities on top of Android. How will Google respond to all this? How will it demonstrate that it is creating not only secure platforms but platforms and services which respect user privacy?

Beyond product and feature announcements

I think we’ll see explicit or implicit answers to all these questions at I/O, and those answers will signal broader strategic shifts from Google which will be felt for years to come. Yes, it will make individual product and feature announcements including – in all likelihood – a new version of Android, the first Android Wear products and others. But it’s these big strategic choices that will have far more impact over the long term.