As with last quarter’s Apple earnings call, there has been lots of handwringing about why iPad shipments aren’t growing this quarter. I’ve done a fair amount of thinking about this, and did some analysis as part of the recent Apple profile my clients received. I thought I’d share some of that thinking here, and expand on it a bit. A fuller review of Apple’s earnings will be coming shortly.
Update: In-depth review of Apple’s earnings is up here now.
Shipments versus the base
First, it’s important to be clear about one very important thing: the difference between iPad shipments and the iPad base. Stagnant or even shrinking shipments don’t mean the base is shrinking, and in fact it’s likely growing at a decent rate. Here’s my estimate of the iPad installed base over time:
You’ll see that it’s been growing at a fairly steady clip, and that it’s reached about 180 million. Naturally, I’ve made some assumptions about how long people hang on to their iPads based on various data sources, so it’s not 100% accurate, but it’s likely a good guess at what’s been happening. So the first thing to note is that the number of people who have iPads is growing, not flat or shrinking, even if shipments are stagnant or falling slightly. Continue reading
