Category Archives: Apple

Why Apple might break its launch pattern with wearables

Apple has established a pattern over the last six years with regard to releasing SDKs to developers ahead of releasing new software and hardware products to customers. The original iPhone didn’t follow this pattern, not having an App Store and therefore no SDK either. But since March 2008, Apple has given developers several months’ lead time to create apps which are optimized for its newest hardware and software releases. The times between SDK release and customer availability of the related products is shown in the chart below:

iOS SDK to customer availability - 560px

The exact length of time between SDK release and customer availability has bounced around a bit. When new iPhones were released in June, the SDKs arrived first in March, and then in April, slowly whittling down the time available for developers to create apps. Then, in 2011, Apple moved the whole schedule back a few months, with SDK release in the summer, and the new iPhone landing in the fall, and it stretched out the time in-between at the same time, moving it back to around 130 days. The last two releases have both seen exactly 102 days from SDK to customer availability. When Apple last introduced an entirely new hardware category, in 2010, it gave would-be iPad developers just over two months’ lead time.

As we approach the possible launch of new hardware in at least one category (wearables) and possibly two (smart home), it’s worth thinking about how this pattern might apply to these new categories. What’s most striking this time around is that I think it’s entirely possible that Apple has already done the SDK releases that will power these devices, and we therefore won’t see the long delay between the announcement of new hardware and its availability to the public. Apple has already laid the groundwork for new wearable devices as follows:

  • In iOS 7, announced in June 2013 and available since September 2013, Apple tweaked the Notification Center and augmented Bluetooth capabilities to support better off-device notifications, for example on a smartwatch or similar device (Pebble and other third party smartwatches already make use of these)
  • in iOS 8, announced at this year’s WWDC and presumably available in September 2014, Apple created HealthKit and the companion Health app, which can capture data from sensors in wearables and store and analyze them for users.

As such, depending on Apple’s implementation of wearables, it’s possible that it’s already given developers all the tools they need to create apps that will take advantage of whatever Apple releases. There may not be an “iWatch” SDK as such. If that’s the case, we could see the pattern shown in the chart above blown away completely with the release of wearable devices from Apple. Or, put another way, Apple has already started the clock ticking by releasing the SDKs to developers, and now we just need to wait for the other shoe to drop. And of course, if you believe the rumors about the smart home, the very same pattern would apply there – the necessary tools are all already out there in developers’ hands in the form of HomeKit.

If Apple is indeed planning an iWatch rather than something similar, it might need an SDK of its own for the on-device display, but if – as I suspect – what Apple ends up releasing looks a lot less like a watch and more like a much simpler device, then I think all the pieces may already be in place. On Monday, I’ll talk more about why I think what Apple releases might not be a watch at all, and why I think there will probably be several devices rather than just one.

A review of early Android Auto and Apple CarPlay support

Apple announced on Tuesday that it had added several new auto manufacturers to its list of partners for its CarPlay automotive platform. Given Google’s official launch of Android Auto last week, we now have two major platforms looking to do very similar things in the car: namely, extending certain smartphone functions to the in-car display. I thought it would be useful to have a quick look at how the two platforms are shaping up in terms of their support from major automobile manufacturers.

Here’s a summary of support by the major manufacturing groups 1. A full list by brand follows at the bottom of the post.

Android Auto and CarPlay support by major manufacturing groupWhat’s striking is that there is no clear pattern between the two sets of companies. Both companies have just under 30 total brands supporting their platform, and there’s no clear separation between luxury and non-luxury brands, as one might expect given the the market segments iOS and Android skew towards. Yes, Ferrari and BMW are CarPlay-only for now, but Maserati, Acura and Infiniti are currently only supporting Android Auto. There are major groups that appear to lean one way or the other – the VW group, for example, appears to favor Android Auto, but its Audi brand is on both platforms, while Peugeot Citroen is CarPlay only.

There are quite a number of sub-brands which are not on either list yet – particularly where a manufacturer has a core mid-market brand with high-end and low-end sub-brands: GM’s Chevrolet is committed to both platforms, but there’s no mention of Buick, Cadillac or GMC. Similarly, Toyota is on CarPlay, but there’s no specific mention of Lexus or Scion at the high end or low end. It’s likely that these companies will experiment with either platform or both in one or two mainstream models and then extend them to others as demand warrants. The main other marques missing are high-end luxury brands such as Porsche, Lamborghini and Bugatti.

The other glaring omission, though, is Tesla, tiny in terms of overall manufacturing share but a very tech-centric brand and one which likely shares a great deal with the target market for CarPlay and Android Auto. Tesla, of course, already incorporates a large, smart screen in its cars, and as such doesn’t have the same need to buy in something better from Apple or Google. But to the extent that users will want their own smartphones, rather than an independent car-based system, to drive their entertainment, navigation and communication experience in the car, Tesla may still want to find ways to work with Apple and Google to enhance its infotainment solution. The challenge will be that both Android Auto and CarPlay are designed to essentially take over the UI, something that makes much more sense on a traditional small car screen than on Tesla’s 17-inch display. It’s likely that it will want to build something more customized than what we’ve seen from either platform so far.

Perhaps the most cheering element of the support both platforms have received from major manufacturers is that so many of them seem to be planning to support both, even in the relatively short term. Given that the biggest objection from many users to the whole concept of a Google- or Apple-powered in-car system is that they don’t want to have to choose their car purchasing options limited by their choice of smartphone, this is a welcome trend. The best outcome for consumers would be in-car systems that either come with both platforms pre-loaded, or with the ability to activate either at any time. It seems that Volvo, Honda and Hyundai may be moving in this direction already, which again should be a cause for celebration. This will have to be part of a broader shift towards more upgradable in-car systems, which will drive demand for in-car connectivity and create opportunities for other players such as wireless carriers.

The key thing here, though, is that we’re very early in the development of this new market. Both platforms currently rely on wired connections between the phone and the car to a degree that most customers won’t be happy with. Bluetooth and potentially WiFi connectivity seem logical next steps for improving the experience. But for the most part, all we’ve seen today are concepts and some very early commitments to include Android Auto and CarPlay in some models. It will likely be a couple of years before we see broad support for these platforms in a large number of models, and the list of manufacturers supporting each will likely grow significantly between now and then.

Here’s the full listing of support by brand: Continue reading

Notes:

  1. This is a surprisingly complex exercise, given the sometimes intricate relationships between the various marques and their owners – e.g. I’ve listed Porsche as part of the VW group, but technically the Porsche company is an owner of the VW group

On the replicability of the iPhone

A couple of my tweets from a few days ago were retweeted first by Ben Thompson and then by John Gruber, and as a result I got a slew of replies on Twitter from people, many of whom misunderstood the fundamental point I was making, and the context in which I was making it. In the interest of making my intentions clearer than 140 (or even 280) characters allowed me to be, I thought I’d write a quick post on my reasoning.

First, the context for my tweets, which were arguably subtweets directed at this paragraph from a recent post by Jean-Louis Gassée:

The most ambitious rumors project 50 million iWatches sold in the first 12 months. I think that’s an unrealistic estimate, but if a $300 iWatch can sell at these numbers, that’s $15B for the year. This seems like a huge number until you compare it to a conservative estimate for the iPhone: 50 million iPhones at $650 generates $32B per quarter.

Here are the original two tweets:

The fundamental point I was making is this: as long as our bar for whether Apple should do something, or whether that thing should be considered a success for Apple, is how it compares to the success of the iPhone, everything will come up short. The iPhone has been such an enormous success for Apple that it is arguably unparalleled in the history both of Apple and of the industry as a whole. If that’s our bar for success now, we’re fooling ourselves, and if Apple were to take that approach, it would likely never launch another product again. This post explores that central context in more detail.

Measuring the iPhone’s success

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What we learned at I/O about Google’s app revenue

With both Apple and Google’s developer events behind us now, we have some useful new numbers to play with, specifically on the amount both companies have disbursed to developers. In today’s Google I/O keynote, Google announced that it had paid developers $5 billion over the past year, and that this was 2.5 times what it had paid developers in the previous twelve-month period. This gives us some really good numbers to start plotting overall Google Play developer payments for the first time. The Wall Street Journal also reported today that Google is now retaining almost all of its 30% cut, as does Apple, rather than giving the majority to carriers as it once did. This, in turn, allows us to calculate Google’s revenues from Google Play as well.

Google is catching up quickly in payments to developers

First, a comparison of quarterly developer payments on both platforms. I’ve filled in the blanks with a nice smooth curve on the Google Play numbers, and although my fairly accurate estimates on the iOS side are pretty lumpy too I’ve smoothed that curve as well to make them easier to compare. (The reality is developer payments go up and down because app spending goes up and down as new devices ship and are sold in large numbers around major launches and the holiday period, for example.)

So here’s a chart comparing developer payments from the two companies since the inception of their respective paid app stores:

Google and Apple developer payments Continue reading

Apple is doubling down on mature markets

As we gear up for Google I/O next week, and imagine what we might see from Google there, I wanted to have one last look at Apple’s WWDC, from a slight different perspective. One of the thoughts about WWDC that’s taken a while to percolate for me is that WWDC was a good sign that, from a product perspective at least, Apple is doubling down on mature, developed markets, rather than joining the land rush in emerging markets.

HomeKit and HealthKit are about solving first-world problems

I wrote about HealthKit and HomeKit in a couple of previous pieces here and on Techpinions. I think they’re both much-needed solutions to real problems in the health and fitness and home automation categories. But these are in some ways the very definition of first world problems. Trying to get your smart lock, your smart lightbulb and your smart thermostat to talk to each other is a challenge experienced only by people who can afford to buy the overpriced products on offer in these markets.

HealthKit also comes into its own in part when tying together several different fitness tracking devices, which is another first-world phenomenon. There is, though, another element to HealthKit, which is about access to medical data from various healthcare providers. But again, this is something of a mature-market issue. A recent data set from Opera Mediaworks highlighted the disconnect between mature and emerging markets when it comes to searching for health related information on mobile devices:

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New podcasts

I’ve done two podcasts in the past week:

  • The Beehive Startups / Startup Daily podcast, which I occasionally guest on. This episode was recorded shortly after Apple’s WWDC, so we talked a lot about what Apple announced there, including HealthKit, HomeKit and Swift. We also talked a bit about Google’s self-driving cars.
  • The Techpinions podcast, where I’m a regular contributor (I also write a weekly column on the Techpinions site). We talked about E3 and consoles, PCs, and wearables. Some of the thoughts on smartwatches I’d previously shared in this post about the potential for an iWatch.

Happy listening!

What “winning” means for Apple

I posted a tweet yesterday that seemed to hit a nerve with people, and so I thought I’d expand on my thinking a bit here. What I actually posted was two related tweets, though it was the second that seemed to resonate – the first was merely context:

There were at least two articles that prompted my tweet, but the main one was this one from Ellis Hamburger at the Verge. Both took a tack that I felt fundamentally misunderstood what Apple does and how it does it, but there was one particular section of piece on the Verge that sums up the mentality here very well, so I’ll use that as the jumping off point:

But today, communications are a commodity, and it’s hard (if not impossible) to survive in the long-run as an app that only works on one platform. A dozen messaging apps are sweeping the globe, and all of them work whether you have an iPhone, Android, Mac, or PC. Apple’s Messages app, and the iMessage platform therein, only work if your friends and family use Apple products. In the United States, where iPhone market share is highest of almost any country, iMessage’s thin ice is harder to perceive. The United States is one of the only countries where no one messaging app reigns king, but elsewhere markets are dominated by one messaging app or another, all of which have similar features and work on all platforms.

A single-platform messaging app cannot win. Despite its tasteful new feature additions, however derivative they may be, Apple is playing on borrowed time. If Apple is determined to stay single-platform, it’s going to take more than new features to save its messaging ambitions.

To suggest that Apple is trying to “win” in the messaging wars is equivalent to suggesting that iTunes was an attempt to “win” in the music-playing software wars. Neither is the case. The first thing to understand about Apple is that it’s motivated first and foremost by creating the best possible experience on Apple devices. This imperative drove Steve Jobs to the extent that he made poor business decisions early on in his time at Apple, ultimately leading to his ouster. He was so fixated with this objective that he lost sight of others and ultimately of what it would take to keep Apple in business as a public company, a lesson he learned the hard way and ultimately brought back to Apple when he returned. But that has always been the fundamental motivation for Apple’s senior leaders above all else.

That motivation leads to one of the other defining characteristics of Apple as a company: the tight integration of hardware, software and services. Apple has never been about creating cross-platform services. To those of you who may wish to point out that Apple has long had iTunes on Windows, I direct you to this quote from Walter Isaacson’s 2011 book on Steve Jobs:

We put iTunes on Windows in order to sell more iPods. But I don’t see an advantage of putting our music app on Android, except to make Android users happy. And I don’t want to make Android users happy.

Apple’s only significant cross-platform move was still a move to make Apple devices more compelling – the simple fact is that an iPod was not a standalone device, and it needed iTunes to be at all useful. Given the Mac’s very low share of the global PC market, releasing iTunes for Windows was an obvious strategic imperative. But it was done with one objective in mind – making the iPod a compelling device for a larger number of users, and yes, selling more iPods as a result.

What both the pieces I linked to above ignore is that everything Apple does is part of an ecosystem, and that’s exactly why people buy its products. Ever since the iPod and iTunes launched, Apple has been in the business of connecting its devices together in a way that adds value to each of them. The iPod added value to the Mac by providing a portable music player for your iTunes music, and iTunes on the Mac added value to the iPod by providing the conduit through which you obtained music to put on your device. When Apple released iTunes, it wasn’t competing in the music-playing software market anymore than iMessage is Apple’s attempt to compete in the messaging market. Both products were software Apple developed to add more value to its hardware products, and should not be seen as products in their own right.

When the whole rationale for Apple’s software is to add value to its hardware products, the idea of providing cross-platform software or services becomes inimical. To the extent that Apple software or services are available on non-Apple devices, they cease to provide meaningful differentiation for Apple products. By contrast, making Apple-exclusive software and services available on various different Apple hardware products adds significant value, and providing tighter integration between those devices through software and services adds even more. Hence the focus on these things at WWDC on Monday. To suggest that Apple needs to make its Messages product (or any other product) cross-platform in order to succeed is to get things exactly backwards – Apple doesn’t make hardware to be successful in messaging; it makes a messaging product to be successful in hardware.

This makes its Beats acquisition particularly interesting, since the Beats music streaming service is cross-platform today. But I suspect that the product we eventually see from Apple which integrates Beats’ streaming and curation technology will go back to being Apple-only. If there’s any strategic rationale to Apple spending so much money to stay at the forefront of the music business, it’s to make the iPhone the best device for music, and not to create a broad-based music subscription service.

All of this is part of a broader trend in the consumer technology space, which is that the most successful companies are competing in a different way, by combining hardware, software, content, communications (and in some cases connectivity) in integrated ways which create compelling end-to-end experiences for consumers. I see the same flawed logic among people criticizing Amazon’s entry to the smartphone market on the basis that no-one makes money in smartphones. If Amazon is entering the smartphone market, it’s not to make money on smartphones, but to drive buyers to spend more money with Amazon as a whole, across digital content and e-commerce. Amazon and Apple each have a core business that makes the bulk of their money, and their entry into adjacent spaces is intended to reinforce the core business, often at break-even or even negative margins. Google is the archetype of this model, providing many services for free, all of them funded by advertising and especially search advertising. It provides those services not out of the kindness of its heart but in order to increase the appeal of the Google ecosystem and to gather data that helps with its other businesses.

Apple isn’t fighting the messaging war. To the extent it’s fighting a war at all, it’s fighting an ecosystem war, and so far it’s winning. Is Apple’s tightly-integrated model the only way to be successful in the consumer technology market? Not at all, though it certainly seems to be the way to generate the best margins. There’s always going to be room and demand for other models too, and both Microsoft and Google have benefited greatly in market share terms from taking a less integrated approach. But to imply that Apple’s approach is ultimately doomed is to ignore what’s made it so successful over the past several decades, and the model it needs to continue to pursue to remain successful.

Apple resurgent – thoughts on WWDC

Today’s WWDC keynote was a sign of a renewed swagger on the part of Apple, whose executives seemed to relish the deluge of new product announcements they unleashed on developers and on their customers. In the process Apple established or strengthened its competitive positioning against two major foes – Microsoft and Google – while opening itself up in unparalleled ways to developers. Today’s announcements may come to be seen in the same way as Steve Jobs’ original launch of Mac OS X, in that it lays the groundwork in several areas for years of future Apple products.

The demotion of Google continues

Two years ago at WWDC, Apple removed erstwhile close partner Google from the iPhone in two significant areas: as the backend provider for the Maps app, and in the form of the pre-installed YouTube app. But Google’s last major bastion on iOS is its position as the default search engine in Safari, and it’s much harder to remove there. In the sense of typing a query into a search box or address bar in a browser, hitting enter and being presented with a screen of blue links, Google is unrivaled, and Apple knows that. But it has slowly been inserting itself between the user and that search box over the last couple of years, and today’s keynote provided further evidence of Apple’s pre-empting of the Google search on both iOS and OS X devices.

Apple’s more subtle disruption of the user-Google relationship began with the launch of Siri, which began to address some users’ queries without an explicit search, and which uses Wikipedia, Wolfram Alpha and Bing, but not Google, as underlying search providers. And it has continued since then, as more third party services have been layered into Siri, pre-empting the Google search for movie listings, restaurant reservations and sports scores. Today’s keynote added Spotlight search to the list of places where users will now find answers to their queries without the classic search box experience, thus further inserting Apple between users and Google.

This is potentially significant for Google, for which the US continues to be easily its single biggest and most lucrative market, and for which mobile is increasingly important. To the extent that iPhone users, which make over 40% of US smartphone users, start using Apple and its tightly integrated third party services instead of Google, for search, that’s pretty bad news. That isn’t, of course, why Apple is taking these steps, but it’s an unpleasant side effect for Google. And a great way for Apple to participate in the search business without having to match Google in the page-of-blue-links business.

A device for every need, not one device for every need

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Apple and the smart home

The FT reported yesterday that Apple will be announcing some sort of smart home ecosystem next week at WWDC. Interestingly, I’d written about Apple’s potential to do something interesting in the smart home space a couple of months ago on Techpinions, as part of a longer piece about how Apple has the potential to de-fragment various industry sectors, including wearables, payments and the smart home. Monday’s report got me thinking about some of those themes a bit more, and triggered several more thoughts, some of which I shared with Tim Bradshaw of the FT (who broke this news as well as the Apple-Beats news) for his follow-up piece on the subject. I thought I’d write up some of them here in more detail too.

Current state of the smart home market

In a word, fragmented. This market is characterized by a wide range of players with their own approaches to knitting together the various components of what might make up a smart home. No-one does everything end to end, so you’re either stuck with various islands that can’t talk to each other, or reliant on trying to find devices that participate in one of several ecosystems which are emerging. Qualcomm has AllJoyn/AllSeen, the UPnP forum is extending its work with UPnP and DLNA into this area, SmartThings, Staples, AT&T and others are creating their own proprietary ecosystems and so on. But it’s a messy business and no-one really owns it today. If you’ve bought products from several vendors, chances are you’d have to go into your Nest, Belkin and Phillips apps separately to turn your thermostat, home audio system and lights on separately. That’s not exactly user friendly.

But the point here is that the smartphone is the obvious controller for all these various devices, and yet none of the players currently playing in this market has a direct stake in the smartphone market, at either the hardware or OS layer. Qualcomm perhaps comes closest, but is two steps removed from the end user and as such has little direct influence over user behavior. The players in the strongest position here are those who craft smartphone hardware and software.

Apple’s smart home solution likely has several parts

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Apple & Beats

In what must be an enormously frustrating development for Apple PR, rumors of Apple acquiring Beats for around $3.2 billion broke last night on the Financial Times website. I say frustrating, because if there’s one company that likes to control the message on a new announcement, it’s Apple. And it’s so hard to evaluate this deal without all the details – to my mind, we’re missing three crucial bits of information (besides official confirmation that a deal has been done): the actual price, and the currency (i.e. cash, stock etc), Beats’ financials (helping to know whether the valuation is reasonable) and the strategic rationale. The rumor is that the price is $3.2 billion, but there are no details on the currency. There have been rumors about Beats’ financials, but nothing official from the company itself. And it’s the last point – the strategic rationale – that has everyone scratching their heads.

I don’t have any inside information on any of these three questions, but I thought I’d share a few data points by way of illustrating possible reasons for the deal.

Digital content sales are declining

Firstly, what’s been happening to Apple’s digital content business over the last couple of years. I’ve excerpted the relevant sentence(s) from the company’s SEC filings, and there’s a clear trend emerging:

Apple digital content remarks from SEC filings Continue reading